$112 Oil, Crashing Wages, and the War Nobody Can Afford

Peter Schiff argues that the U.S. economy is sliding into stagflation, with oil at $112 a barrel, weak jobs data, falling real wages, and a war that he says will only make things worse. In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, he lays out why he believes gold and silver remain the place to be as policymakers are forced into more stimulus and inflation rises.

Looking at the March jobs report, Peter Schiff points out that the headline gain of 178,000 jobs was flattered by a 43% share coming from health care, and he doubts the figure will hold after future revisions. He notes that labor force participation fell to a five-year low of 61.9%, which helps push the unemployment rate down, while average hourly earnings grew just 3.5% year over year, a figure he says overstates real wage growth once inflation is considered.

Peter Schiff also highlights the services PMI falling to 49.8, below the 50 threshold that signals contraction, even as prices paid kept rising. He calls this evidence of stagflation that the Federal Reserve has been denying. He expects the Fed to remain on hold while oil stays elevated, and he argues that nominal rate moves matter less than real rates, which he believes will fall as inflation accelerates.

On markets, Peter Schiff notes that stocks, bonds, gold, and Bitcoin have been moving opposite to oil, and he expects gold to post a strong April after its worst March since 2008. He discusses President Trump’s speech, which he says recycled claims about a decisive military victory and an economy poised to roar back after the war, and he questions why the U.S. should continue bombing Iran if the threat has been eliminated.

Peter Schiff also revisits his long-standing position that the tariffs were unconstitutional, now confirmed by the Supreme Court after a year of collection, and he warns that the midterms and 2028 election could bring a Democratic socialist administration that will blame capitalism for the economic damage.

Key takeaways

• Peter Schiff calls the March jobs gain of 178,000 overstated, with 43% in health care and likely downward revisions ahead.
• Labor force participation fell to 61.9%, a five-year low, masking weakness in the unemployment rate.
• West Texas crude closed at $112 a barrel, and Peter Schiff expects higher energy costs to ripple through the broader economy.
• Peter Schiff expects gold to rebound strongly in April and sees real interest rates falling in 2026 as inflation rises.
• He argues that Trump’s tariffs were unconstitutional, a point he says he made from the start.
• Peter Schiff urges investors to diversify out of U.S. dollar assets into gold and silver ahead of expected political shifts.