Consumers haven’t been this scared since 2014 and bonds still sold off. Peter Schiff: this is the end game.
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Bond yields hit new highs on weak data, consumer confidence sank to a 12-year low, and Peter says the end game has arrived.
The 30-year Treasury touched 5.62% and the 10-year closed at 5.26%, two weeks after 5% was supposed to be the ceiling. What makes this week different is that bonds sold off on bad news: consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9, the lowest in 12 years and below the depths of the pandemic, job openings missed, and yields rose anyway. Peter’s warning is direct: if Friday’s jobs number is weak and bonds still fall, the orderly grind lower becomes a crash. Gold’s $170 drop is the market getting this backwards. Money leaving bonds ends up in gold, the last safe haven standing.
The bigger story is housing. America is now in the worst quadrant, high debt and high rates, which it has never lived through. For 40 years mortgage rates only fell, from 18% in 1981 to 2.65% in 2021, and homeowners rode that wave with serial cash-out refis that turned the house into an ATM. At 7.4% and headed past 8%, that era is over: no more refis, no cash out, no wealth effect, with homes at five times income and down payments at 13.8%. Fannie and Freddie are down 75% while the government buys more mortgage bonds. Neither party will name a cut. Every crisis Peter has warned about is converging, and he says to get your plan B in order.
Chapters:
00:00 Bond Crash Warning
01:02 Yields Surge and Mortgages
02:59 Gold Dip and Safe Haven
07:11 Weak Data Ignored
13:21 Housing Market Cracks
14:48 Password Security Ad
16:00 High Debt High Rates Era
19:17 Housing Bubble Math
23:56 Refi Boom Ends
28:24 Home Prices Next Drop
31:30 Noom Weight Loss Pitch
33:07 GSE Stocks Get Crushed
35:50 Trump Hype And Dump
39:39 PSA Or Campaign Ad
42:41 Deficits Nobody Will Cut
47:59 Affordability Promises Backfire
50:08 Socialism Messaging Trap
52:12 AI Hope Versus Debt Crisis
56:02 Fed Out Of Tricks
56:43 Prepare For The Storm
57:28 Wrap Up And Plan B
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