The world produced around 30 billion barrels of oil in 2024.
New conventional discoveries totaled less than 5 billion.
Even large finds like Exxon’s Guyana project cover only a fraction of one year’s demand.
New projects now take nearly 20 years on average from license to first production.
Years of banks stopping loans and pension funds pulling out have already locked in tighter supplies for the 2030s.
Refining capacity has also shrunk. Britain lost refineries. California lost plants.
Diesel is above $6 a gallon. Trucks move three-quarters of America’s freight on diesel, so higher fuel costs show up in everything you buy.
Add $40 trillion in debt and a Federal Reserve willing to print money to cover deficits, and the inflation pressure compounds.
The point is not to settle the political debate over the war in Iran. The war simply makes the existing shortage more visible.
When there is no spare capacity, every disruption is settled by price.
Companies that already own tankers or oil in the ground collect the difference.
Owning a piece of those businesses is protection, not speculation.
Schiff Sovereign’s investment research newsletter, Strategic Assets, looks for companies that are already profitable, carry little or no debt, and trade cheap relative to the cash they generate.
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